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President’s Trophy Watch, 3/28 March 28, 2010

Posted by CapitalSpirit in Uncategorized.
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I’m going to do a full update on the charts tomorrow evening. But for Caps fans who want to know where the Caps stand with respect to the President’s Trophy, here’s the math.

The Caps have already clinched the 1 East spot. Seeing Z-Washington Capitals on the official standings was absolutely Twilight Zone-ish, and doubly so after the stinker of a game the Caps played this afternoon. However, the race for the President’s Trophy is down to three teams: San Jose, Chicago, and YOUR WASHINGTON CAPITALS!

Right now, the Caps have 109 points, with 7 games left to go. That gives the Caps a top-end score of 123. Chicago got a surprise from the Blue Jackets this afternoon, losing in regulation at home to one of the worst teams in the West. San Jose held off Colorado, so their top end stays put at 116.

So, right now, the Caps need seven points to lock up the President’s Trophy. That’s it. Seven. As in Yvon Labre’s jersey number. The Caps have seven games remaining. So the Caps could literally go .500 the rest of the way and have home ice throughout the playoffs. And even THAT assumes that Chicago and San Jose run what’s left of a short table–not impossible, given how well Chicago and San Jose play, but also not a guarantee. The Caps have five home games remaining, along with road games in Pittsburgh and Columbus. Pittsburgh is going to be war on skates, but you have to believe the Caps want to go for the season sweep at the Igloo (as well as win their final regular season game in that building.) Columbus could be a surprise, or they could play to their record. Let’s assume the worst, and assume that the Caps only get one point out of their final two road games. That means they would still have room for two regulation losses at the Phone Booth…and they’ve won three out of every four games they’ve played at home so far this year.

Let me construct a nightmare scenario here. Let’s say the Caps go 0-1-1 on the last two road games, and 2-1-2 in their last five home games. That’s still seven points–game over, regardless. And even THEN, you STILL have to assume that San Jose wins out. Well, guess what? 4 of the Sharks’ final six games are on the road, where they are a very mortal 22-13-2. Their final two home opponents? Phoenix and Vancouver, both playoff teams. To make a long prediction short, San Jose is not going to run the table. As for the Hawks–for the record, the Caps need six points to put them away–they have 8 games remaining, five of which are on the road. And the Hawks are 19-13-4 away from United Center.

Not to jinx it, but: Do the math, Caps fans, and then try not to spit champagne on your calculators. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet, but she’s definitely warming up right about now.

CAPITAL SPIRIT
DON’T STOP BELIEVIN’, NOW MORE THAN EVER

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